-Wall Street firms are warning that there are signals indicating the capital markets are overheating, including the decay of long-standing correlations between stocks, bonds and commodities - as well as investors ignoring valuation fundamentals and economic trends. According to firms like HSBC Holdings, Citigroup & Morgan Stanley the global markets are in the last stage of their rallies and there is consensus building that stock and credit markets are at risk of a painful drop. “Equities have become less correlated with FX, FX has become less correlated with rates, and everything has become less sensitive to oil,” according to Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist.  Wall Street research has also noted that for the first time since the mid-2000s, stocks that outperformed analysts’ earnings and sales estimates across 11 sectors received zero reward from investors. Moreover, Citigroup analysts contend that the markets are on the cusp of entering a late-cycle peak before a recession that pushes stocks and bonds into a bear market.  HOWEVER, IT IS OUR VIEW THAT WE ARE IN A LATE STAGE CYCLE WITHIN A SECULAR BULL MARKET THAT IS DUE FOR ONLY A CORRECTION, WHICH ARE “NORMAL” PERIODIC PULLBACKS OF 10% (AN OCCURANCE FREQUENCY OF ABOUT EVERY 16-18 MONTHS).  WE ARE NOT CALLING FOR A BEAR MARKET!

-August 17, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. Volatility spiked again and all U.S. equity indexes took it on the chin once again for the week with the S&P 500 -0.55%, Dow Jones -0.77% and Nasdaq -0.64%. The fear index [CBOE Volatility Index, aka VIX] also surged by more than 30% on Thursday as U.S. stocks suffered their worst day in three months. Trading volumes began soaring after Standard & Poor's downgraded the U.S. credit rating and disappointing earnings from Wal-Mart and Cisco Systems. Moreover, the market was also rattled by a gloomy Morgan Stanley report that renewed fears about a slowing global economic recovery; the bank warned that the U.S. and Europe were "hovering dangerously close" to a recession in the next 6-12 months. Finally, the Barcelona terrorist event - a despicable and ghastly act - further unsettled global capital markets.
 
-August 11, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market posted its second worst weekly loss for the year as markets declined on escalating tensions between the U.S. and N. Korea. The S&P 500 lost -1.37% and the Dow Jones returned -1.50% and the breadth was a large swath that included losses in all sectors. For example, the fear index which is often gauged by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which had been at near historical lows, spiked 55% for the week.  However, defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities were essentially flat on the negative side. With respect to bonds, corporates also  posted losses whereas flight to safety toward treasuries resulted in positive moves for U.S. government bonds. That said, earnings seasons continues to wrap-up on the positive side:  90%+ of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with 70% meeting or exceeded analysts’ sales estimates while 82% have met or exceeded analysts’ earnings estimates. 

-Market volatility has been abnormally low for months (VIX only at 10.5 vs. average of about 14.4) and it is important to be cognizant of historical trends. For example, VIX or volatility often spikes during the August-to-October period. For the last 20 years, August has been the worst month for the Dow Jones & S&P 500. The stock market hasn’t had a downward correction since February 2016, where it sold off 11%. Periodical market corrections typically occur about every 16-18 months, with technical 10% consolidation declines.  It is interesting that we also just to happen to be entering that 16-18 month sweet spot within a calendar period for some form of S&P 500 market retrenchment. It is equally helpful to be mindful that there are a number of technical corrections during secular bull markets, and this is considered a heathy pattern.  Moreover, bear markets are rare events without being preceded by early recessionary pressures.  Indeed, about 75% of company stocks in the S&P 500 have exceed sales and earnings estimates in 2Q17, while the S&P 500 earnings racked +10.1% growth in the most recent quarter.  On a macro economic front, unemployment hit a 16-year low and 2Q GDP is at a +2.6% pace. 

-August 4, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The more diverse sector indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both were up for the week at +0.23% and +1.22% respectively, while the tech oriented Nasdaq index finished down again, -0.36%.  Of the 420 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q2 2017 the year-over-year results have been up +10.1%. Moreover, 72.9% of the reported earnings have been above analyst expectations. Additional positive economic drivers also kicked-in for the week as the economy added 209,000 jobs in July, sharply higher than the expected 180,000.  Unemployment has now hit a 16-year low of 4.3%. 

-June 18, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market finished mixed for the week with the S&P 500 holding its ground at +0.1% while the Nasdaq continued its slide with -0.92% loss.  Driving most of the market's action was the Fed’s +0.25% rate increase and its comments, along with several other important economic data reports. The Federal Reserve laid out its plans to reduce the size of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

-June 9, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup.  The equity indexes closed mixed for the week with the S&P 500 –0.27%, the Dow Jones 30 +0.33% and the Nasdaq -1.55%. However, Wall Street's tech darlings took it the shorts on Friday with the FAANGs having sharp losses: Facebook (FB) -3.3%, Amazon (AMZN) -3.2%, Apple (AAPL) -3.9%, Netflix (NFLX) -4.7% and Google (GOOG) -3.4%.  These five stocks have accounted for a remarkable two-fifths (or 40%) of the S&P 500’s market gain this year.  Much of the tech sell-off was driven by jitters over rumors that Apple’s iPhones may have reduced speeds due to modem supply constraints, along with Goldman Sach’s research piece on the tech stock leaders called the FAAMG (includes Microsoft); the piece highlighted how the FAAMGs are behind in profitability relative to the overall tech sector and how these top five names are reminiscent of the 2000 tech bubble.  On the global front, the World Bank released their forecast that the global economy is expected to expand by 2.7% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018 with anticipated improvement of manufacturing, trade and consumer data.          

-June 2, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The major U.S. indices advanced to new record highs with the S&P 500 closing the week up +1.0%, the Dow 30 +0.69% and the Nasdaq +1.54%.  The continued positive market momentum even overcame a lackluster jobs report of weaker than expected non-farm payrolls,  138,000 reported vs  185,000 expected.  Technology stocks (particularly Telecom) led gainers, while financials and energy were the sector lagers for the week.

-April 28, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The S&P 500 finished with a gain of 1.5%. Some good first-quarter earnings results also boosted the indexes and helped the market carry momentum, boosted by positive reaction to earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) & Alphabet (GOOGL). The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index), often called the “fear gauge,” dropped 26% after the French vote, the largest one-day decline since 2011. Investment-grade corporate bonds benefited from positive investor sentiment at the beginning of the week in part due to the French election results. The upbeat sentiment also led to an increase in rate-hike expectations. The fed funds futures market spiked toward an indication of a June FOMC meeting rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 66.6%, up from last week's 48.5%.


-April 21, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. Equity markets rallied this week as strong earnings results helped elevate investor confidence. The S&P 500 ended the week up +0.87% and the Dow Jones finished up +0.57%. Thus far, 19% of companies in the S&P 500® Index have reported earnings results; of these, 65% have exceeded analysts’ sales estimates, while 76% have exceeded analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Treasury yields remain near 2017 lows as U.S. government debt has continued to rally over geopolitical concerns.


-April 13, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. Equities retreated for the week as “saber rattling” and geopolitical concerns weighed on investors.  Defensive areas of the market, including large cap companies, outperformed while sectors that reflect economic conditions, such as Financials, Materials, and Industrials, lagged. Demand for “safe haven” investments rose, including gold which rose to its highest price since the presidential election, a 14% rally from its December low.  Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped about 30% this week on overall greater investor trepidation, its highest point since last November.


-We remain cautious on current client portfolio positions given the escalation of military activities. For example, the U.S. is playing with fire with soon-to-be military exercises off the coast of North Korea, when Kim Jung-on (who is crazy) promises to unleash a "nuclear-tipped missile." We are equally concerned that Syria, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have aligned against western forces on the Syrian matter.  Thus, as to investing right now, we are also not putting more cash to work. In fact, if conflict events escalate & turn south, then we will be pulling some “risk-on” assets into treasuries. However, that would only be a temporary asset allocation shift in event military conflict ensures, as markets typically recover about two weeks after. “In 14 shocks dating (back) to the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the median one-day decline has been 2.4%. The shocks, which also include the September 11th terror attacks and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, lasted eight days, with total losses of 7.4%…The market recouped its losses 14 days later.” Chris Isidore, “Impact of War On Stocks and Oil,” CNN Money, 9/3/2013

-According to the index firm MSCI, the performance of high yielding equities when the Fed raised rates offer protection. It turns out that over the 88 years through July 2015, when 10-year rates have been low (less than 3%), high-yielding stocks have outperformed the market by an annualized 2.4% as the Fed tightened.

-February 17, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Markets surged to new record highs this week on increased investor optimism surrounding the Trump administration’s tax reform, improving economic data, and strong corporate earnings results. The generally positive fourth quarter earnings have provided a greater sense of optimism of improving economic growth in 2017.  Day-to-day, the markets tend to respond to the latest pronouncements from Washington DC. In turn, municipals bonds are at the cheapest levels relative to taxable bonds since at least December, with ratios to taxable Treasury bonds making munies look more attractive. Treasuries absorbed stronger economic data and a more hawkish Yellen at the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to finish the week 10-12 bps lower in yield. March rate hike probabilities ended the week at 40%.

-Lost decade for international equities.  Since international markets peaked in 2007 right before a global financial meltdown, Morningstar data show that developed international stocks – as measured by the MSCI EAFE index – had lost a cumulative -6% through last week. At the same time, the MSCI Emerging Markets index had slid -16.6%.

-January 13th, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets shifted between modest gains and losses this week to close roughly unchanged. The upcoming fourth quarter corporate earnings reports should provide indications of near-term market direction, and more importantly, insight from management teams’ outlooks for the year.  For example, a few large financial firms have reported fourth quarter results with favorable revenue & profit trends, including very positive remarks on the business prospects moving forward. Ahead of the reporting season, analysts are projecting the companies within the S&P 500  index to have revenue increases of +4.6%, along with improved earnings (+3.2%). The World Bank said this week it expects the world economy to expand +2.7% this year, on the heels of stabilizing and slightly rising commodity prices and fiscal stimulus in the US.

-The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 113.7 (1985=100) - the highest level since August 2001. It moved +4.3 points higher than November’s level, while beating the prior forecast of 109 (according to Bloomberg reports).  Further, the Markets: Proportion of consumers expecting higher share prices in 2017 increased to 44.7% in December, the largest since January 2004.

-January 6th, 2017 Weekly Market Roundup. Equity markets welcomed the New Year with gains in all sectors as all major indices advanced. While the Dow fell just short of reaching 20,000, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high on Friday. Driving much the rally has been the incoming Trump administration’s priorities including tax, health care, and regulatory reform as well as infrastructure spending. Also, helping equities march higher was the December jobs report, which showed that the economy added 156,000 jobs in December and average hourly earnings grew 2.9% over the past year.

Montecito Capital Management Group's 2017 Market Outlook & Forecast:
As we enter 2017 we expect the current economic rebound to continue suggesting GDP growth will likely move toward the 2.7%-3.0% level by the end of the year based on less monetary stimulus, more fiscal stimulus, a reduction in the corporate tax rate and deregulation.

The S&P 500 equity index is currently trading at about a forward 2017 price-earnings ratio of 17x which is a rich value, but not as lofty as the 2000-2001 tech bubble (nor as cheap as 2009). Wall Street currently forecasts a +5.5% gain for the S&P 500 in 2017 (average of 15 firms) and sees the index reaching 2,363 by year end, from its 12/31/16 close of 2,239. We believe the market has the potential for +7.5% in 2017 given more indirect investment currents where lackluster bond downward pricing will likely engender an extended redistribution from bonds to equities. We also believe the S&P 500 returns will be front loaded, where the largest percentage of gains will be in the first half of 2017.

The incoming administration has promised a much more business-friendly atmosphere including lower taxes and less regulation. Trump has control over both houses of Congress. Also, in the years when that has occurred, equiteies have returned an average of +14% per annum. Having Congressional & Executive Branch control is historically rare for a Republican administration. Trump wants to cut the corporate tax rate, and congress is in agreement, making it likely to happen. According to Citi, if the rate was cut to 20%, it would add $12 to their top-down estimate of $130 for 2017 S&P 500 earnings per share (or about +10%,). 

2016 Returns By Sector, Shows Clear Sector Winners, Losers & Benchwarmers:

-December 30th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets declined in the final week of the year on light trading volume over the holiday.  Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its first weekly loss since the presidential election. Nevertheless, the Trump election rally has propelled the major indices to impressive gains in 2016. For the year, the S&P 500® Index rose +9.5% and the NASDAQ advanced +7.5%.  However, 2016 did not lift all boats, with typical safe haven equity sectors down, with healthcare finishing down by over -4% and consumer staples ending essentially flat for the year. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds declined for the second consecutive year.

-December 23rd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup.  Stock market took a holiday break this week. Volatility dipped below 11 percent on Wednesday, the lowest the VIX index has hit since August 2015, and all three major indexes moved by 0.3 percent or less. Global equities dipped modestly this week while US indices barely budged.

-The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday the 14th by a quarter point, or +0.25%. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The overnight funds rate currently sits at 0.41 percent.  Committee members lifted their expectations for GDP growth from 1.80 percent in 2016 to 1.90 percent, and 2.1 percent in 2017 against the previous estimate of 2.0 percent.  The Fed continued to describe that pace as "gradual," keeping policy still slightly loose and supporting some further improvement in the job market. It sees unemployment falling to 4.5 percent next year and remaining at that level, which is considered to be close to full employment.

-December 9th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The recent market rally resumed with stocks recording their best weekly performance since the presidential election.  On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500® Index, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000® all reached new record highs. In contrast, safe haven dividend income areas that have outperformed in recent years - including Utilities and Food & Beverage, and Household Products stocks - have fallen since the election.  Likewise, bonds continue to drop in value as investors anticipate an environment with higher growth and higher inflation; long-dated fixed income investments are less attractive under these conditions.  In this environment, our Model Portfolio and Growth Portfolios are faring well, but the retiree income portfolio remains lackluster.  Looking under the hood in equity sectors show a different picture than what is discussed by the media. For example, the health care sector is down -3.7% ytd, consumer staples sector is only up 2.0% ytd, large growth stocks are only up 3.0% ytd, while REITs have lost about -3% these past three months. Moreover, the long-term corporate bond is down -7.3% over the past three months, US Core Corporate Bond has lost -3.2% in the past 13 weeks; government bonds are down -3.8%.  The takeaway is we have short-term rotations going on with sharp differences between winning and losing sectors and asset classes.  For example, financials are up over 22% this year, with basic materials and energy also both up over 20% this year – these are being driven by the perception that Trump will pour a trillion dollars in America’s infrastructure, including a wall. However, all this spending needs approval and Trump has shown that he sometimes exaggerates on what he wants to do versus on what he can do – such as getting a trillion dollars from congress. Hence, the bifurcation in sector performance may not have legs and sector rotational trends may recalibrate and normalize in the intermediate-term. Again, big sector winners are offsetting the anemic returns in what many consider to be the more stable equity sectors.

-December 2nd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Equity markets retreated this week as the post-election rally stalled, with the S&P 500 finishing down -1.0% while the Russell 2000 lost -2.5%. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index lost -2.4% in November to mark its worst drop in 10 years due to the strengthening U.S. economy (expected Fed increase), rising oil prices and the prospect of increased government spending under the Trump administration (more debt). The upcoming Italian election (called the referendum) could make it a tough trading period for the US markets on Monday (Sunday for EU). If the referendum is lost, it could prove a catastrophe for Italian bank shares and perhaps bank shares all across Europe.
 

-October 28th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Stock indexes were mixed on the week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased marginally, while the S&P 500 fell as the upcoming U.S. elections weighed on sentiment despite generally better-than-expected corporate earnings and economic data/ The initial estimate of third quarter GDP (2.9%), the strongest pace in two years, exceeded both the 2.5% forecast and the second quarter’s somewhat anemic 1.4% growth rate. Of the 293 companies in the S&P 500® Index that have reported results, 73% have exceeded analysts’ earnings per share estimates and 57% have exceeded analysts’ sales estimates.  For the quarter, overall corporate sales are now expected to grow 2.7% while earnings are expected to grow 1.6%.

-October 21st, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The S&P 500 rose +0.4% this week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished little changed after declining -0.1%; the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.8%.  Sixty-eight of the 82 companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings posted better than expected profits for the quarter. However, portfolio managers are hoarding cash at levels not seen since 2001, indicating that in the event professionally managed money have higher conviction, then there remains substantial sideline cash to move the markets on upward. Clearly, investors are sitting on cash for news from the Federal Reserve and the U.S. presidential election. Also, for the first time in three years, trading volume in October is on track to fall below average daily volume for the year.  Federal Funds futures, used by traders to indicate the odds of a central-bank policy change, suggest a 70% chance of a December Fed rate hike. 

-October 14th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index lost about 1.0% for the week, its second consecutive one-week decline. European equities, meanwhile, eked out a 0.1% gain (in local currency terms), after falling to a two-month low on October 13. U.S. equity markets were largely calm with the exception of Tuesday, when the Dow dropped 200 points. For the sixth quarter in a row, compntanies in the S&P 500 are expected to post lower profits than they did a year ago, according to FactSet.

-With correlations between mainstream asset classes increasing this year, more diversity is required. Stocks, bonds, oil, and gold are all set for simultaneous gains this year for the first time since 2010.  What is concerning is if these upward correlations would be matched with equal declines among this group should the market correct downward.  This is one of many reasons why our client portfolios require greater asset diversity.  For example, alternative assets are a portfolio diversifier because they don’t have a high correlation with stocks or bonds and fit somewhere between the two in terms of risk profile. Another consideration is to evaluate the increased portfolio contribution of alternative assets when traditional assets like stocks and bonds are trading at lofty valuations. 

-October 7th, 2016. Markets declined modestly for the week despite stronger than expected vehicle sales and manufacturing data. Third quarter earnings season begins next week with Alcoa, CSX, Delta Air Lines, and JPMorgan Chase scheduled to report.  For companies in the S&P 500® Index, analysts estimate a 2.1% earnings decline, the sixth consecutive decrease.

-Since the presidential election can still throw a curve a ball and with both the stock and bond market valuations trading at above average levels, we strongly believe that investors should stay diversified across a variety of asset classes. Indeed, Mr. Market can also be disrupted by the Fed, which is contemplating a rate hike, while the impact of Brexit still looms (Deutsche Bank is just one of the many concerns).

-The S&P 500 index has gained an average of nearly 4% during the fourth quarter since 1945. Even more comforting, the S&P 500 has increased in price more than 70% of the time. Source: CBSNews.com

-It is unusual that the past two months, August and September, produced identical returns in the S&P 500 of -0.12% decline with both months reflecting a lack of investment conviction. For example, the month of August contained many low volume and low volatility sessions, while September was generally a much more volatile month with big intra-day swings in the middle of the month that ultimately made no advancement in returns.
 
-Since 1933, during the month prior to the election, the S&P 500 Index gained an average of 1.7% when the incumbent party won an election. When the opposition party won, stocks declined by 4.4%.

-August 26th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market ended the week unchanged in another quiet summer week.  The best performing sectors were materials and financials, while the worst performing sectors were health care and consumer staples. Trading activity remained light and price volatility was non-existent. In fact, the broad equity market (S&P 500) has not posted a 1% daily price change in the last 35 trading days. Fed Funds futures place the odds of a September rate increase at 30% (up from 21%) and a December increase at 60% (up from 52%). 

-August 20th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Equity markets were essentially unchanged during the relatively quiet trading week as corporate earnings season is drawing to a close, with more than 95% of companies in the S&P 500 having now reported results. Overall, corporate profits declined about 3%, led by an 84% drop in energy sector earnings. However, Energy (+2.5%) was again the best performing sector as the recent rally in crude oil prices continued. The month of August is usually subdued with trading activity, given many on Wall Street choose to vacation during the month.

-August 12th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. All major U.S. stock indices rose to new highs on Thursday to mark the first time since December 31, 1999 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500® Index, and the NASDAQ Composite reached records on the same day. However, by Friday equity markets pulled back to close the week essentially unchanged. With almost all companies in the S&P 500 having reported earnings, 69% beat analysts' earnings estimates. Energy was the best performing sector as crude oil prices gained 6+% this week due, in part, to speculation that informal OPEC talks in September might lead to an agreement to stabilize production. 

-August 5th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Equity markets started the week lower after stress tests on European banks concerned investors around the world, but a strong US jobs report moved the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to all-time highs by posting its fifth weekly gain in the last six weeks.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average indices both ended the week up approximately +0.4%, The best performing sectors were info tech and financials, while the worst performing sectors were utilities and telecom.

-July 29, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. 2nd quarter earnings continued to outpace expectations with 8-of-10 companies beating consensus estimates. The S&P 500 index was flat for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -0.7%.  Driven by strong corporate earnings, the tech stocks of NASDAQ Composite jumped +1.3% for the week.  The higher beta small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks. In terms of style, large-cap growth stocks outmatched large-cap value stocks. The best performing sectors were tech and health care, while the worst performing sectors were energy & consumer staples. The last week of July was unchanged in the corporate bond market pricing, with spreads remaining static.

-July 22, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets finished modestly higher to cap-off four straight weeks of gains in the slowest week of trading so far this year. The U.S. Equity Market rose for the week with the S&P 500 finishing up +0.3% on strong corporate earnings and increased M&A activity. Second quarter earnings ramped up this week with 89 companies in the S&P 500® Index reporting results.  Thus far, 126 companies in the Index have provided quarterly updates: 86 (68%) have exceeded earnings estimates while 72 (57%) have exceeded sales estimates.  Large-cap stocks performed in-line with small-cap stocks. In terms of style, large-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks. The best performing sectors were info tech and health care, while the worst performing sectors were industrials and energy.

-July 15, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. After being propelled by on a strong start to the earnings season and better-than-expected economic data, the S&P 500 index is on the verge of posting record closing highs for five consecutive days; a feat that has not been seen in nearly two decades. The S&P 500 has risen 8% since the Brexit fallout. Valuations are now getting frothy and in this pricey market environment, we strongly believe that investors should increase diversity across a variety of asset classes.
 
-July 8, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets rose during the holiday-shortened week with positive economic data buoyed investor sentiment, strong employment data and the Fed Reserve’s Minutes on rate hikes showing “prudent to wait for additional economic data before proceeding.”  With this +4% gain in the market over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 closed just below its all-time high. In turn, bond yields continued to drop; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury closed at 1.37%, down from 1.46% last week. The move reflects high domestic & overseas demand for U.S. Treasuries and perhaps its denomination of the USD.

-July 1, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market unexpectedly rose for the week as fears of a post-Brexit tantrum failed to materialize. Broad equities staged a dramatic recovery from Monday’s lows, helped by increased M&A activity, after posting three consecutive days of greater than 1% gains. The S&P 500 index ended the week up +3.3%, which snapped a streak of three consecutive weekly losses. This highlights the importance of staying invested through volatile periods because the best days for the market tend to follow its weakest days. However, we continue to suggest preparing for ongoing volatility in the second half of the year by rebalancing portfolios to a more diverse mix of asset classes.

-May 27th Weekly Roundup Update: US equities finished higher for the week with all major indices generating positive returns above 2% across the board. Firmer oil prices helped, with West Texas Intermediate touching $50 this week. The resilience of the underlying economy to falling energy prices can be seen in the Unemployment Rate, which declined to 3.93% in April, the lowest since September 2008.  US economic output advanced at a still-sluggish 0.8% annual rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth in the second quarter looks to be a bit more robust, with growth estimates running around 2.5%.

-May 20th Weekly Roundup Update: Despite disappointing corporate earnings results from retailers, broad equities managed to end the week higher as trading activity was robust on back of increased intra-day volatility. The S&P 500 closed the week up approximately +0.6%, while the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite climbed +1.4%. The path to these gains, however, was bumpy, as the S&P 500 recorded average intraday swings of 1.1%. Driving this volatility was the Federal Reserve's minutes from its meeting in April. The minutes revealed that the committee thinks it may be appropriate to raise short-term interest rates in June if the labor market continues to strengthen, inflation continues to rise at an annual rate of 2%, and economic growth accelerates in the second quarter. Treasury rates rose as a result; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note increased to 1.85% from 1.71% last week.  In addition, stock Utilities, which typically attracts investors seeking high dividends in a low interest rate environment, was the worst performing sector; stock Financials, which typically benefits from higher interest rates, outperformed. 

-May 13th Weekly Roundup Update: Markets fell for the third straight week on uneven trading activity.  All major indices fell with the S&P 500® Index returning to breakeven for the year. Driving stocks lower on Wednesday was a batch of poor earnings reports by stocks in the consumer sector, particularly from brick-and-mortar retailers. At the end of the week, nearly 92.0% of S&P 500 components had reported their results. Blended earnings were down 7.0% year-over-year while earnings on a reported basis were down 7.6%. Investors heard from a handful of Fed officials throughout the week with some cautioning that the possibility of a rate hike in June should not be dismissed entirely. The fed funds futures market, however, remains convinced that the next rate hike will not come before December. 

-May 6th Weekly Roundup Update: Markets pulled back for the second straight week on lackluster economic data and mixed earnings results. Since reaching year-to-date highs in late April, major indices have stalled as investors weigh soft economic indicators and four consecutive declines in quarterly earnings for the S&P 500® Index. Indeed, the equity markets sold off this first week of May, fulfilling the “sell in May and go away” trading adage. For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq declined 0.8 percent. The S&P 500 is up 0.6 percent for the year so far. The BofA Merrill Lynch BB/B cash pay constrained index was down -0.63% this week as spreads widened by 26 basis points to an option-adjusted-spread of +497 basis points. The tone of the past week in municipals was that of stability, despite some high profile events (i.e. first general obligation default in Puerto Rico), and further political discord in the cities of Chicago and Detroit.

-As hard as it was to believe that the S&P 500 was down more than 10% on the year on 2/11, it was even more unfathomable that by the end of Q1 the S&P 500 would have erased all of those losses and be flat, or even up, on the year at some point before 3/31. Going back and looking at prior years where the S&P 500 saw 10% moves to both the upside and downside in the span of the first quarter, On average, the index has seen a gain of 28.3% (median: +32.0%) for the remainder of the year with positive returns 75% of the time.

-The major averages ended a five-week win streak, with The S&P 500 falling -0.7% over four days that saw some of the lowest trade volume of the year so far; the markets were closed for Good Friday. The stock market's lower note was partly driven by hawkish commentary from St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voting member James Bullard putting a damper on investor sentiment.  Mr. Bullard said that a rate hike in April is not off the table. U.S. crude oil futures came well off session lows to settle 0.8 percent lower at $39.46 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index pared gains after touching its highest in more than a week, but turned in its first positive week in four with a rise of more than 1 percent. The euro held near $1.118 and the yen was at 112.81 yen against the greenback. Gold futures for April delivery settled 0.2 percent lower at $1,221.60 an ounce, down 2.61 percent for the week, its worst since Nov. 6th. Treasury yields held higher, with the 2-year yield near 0.88 percent and the 10-year yield around 1.9 percent.

-March 18th Market Weekly Roundup Update: Equity markets continued their advance to extend the current streak to five consecutive weeks of gains. The positive momentum stemmed from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting at which Fed Chair Janet Yellen downgraded expectations for rate hikes this year; the Fed now expects to raise rates twice in 2016, down from December’s estimate of four times.  A weaker dollar would also help sustain the recent increase in commodity prices.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American benchmark, closed above $40 per barrel for the first time this year; prices have jumped more than 50% since hitting a low in early February. 
 
-Most Investors don't panic when markets periodically correct: Investors have lost money in the markets this year, but not enough to make them revaluate their portfolios, according to a recent survey of affluent individuals. It would take a 19 percent drop in the equities markets to cause investors to think about changing their holdings and a 22 percent decline to make them sell off their equities, according to a recent Legg Mason Global Investment Survey of 500 affluent U.S. investors.
 
-March 11th Market Weekly Roundup Update: the Dow rose 1.2 percent, the S&P gained 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq added 0.7 percent, marking the fourth consecutive positive week for the three indexes. The S&P 500 is now down 1.1 percent for the year, staging a sharp recovery from a selloff at the start of the year that was partly driven by a rout in oil. All major indices and sectors rose as investors reacted positively to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcements, improved energy trends, and less volatility in China’s markets. The markets turned enthusiastic about the ECB’s latest stimulus measures.  These include interest rate cuts, an expanded pace and scope of its bond buying program, and cheaper, longer-term bank funding.
 
-March 4th Market Weekly Roundup Update: Markets rose for the third consecutive week as optimism seemed to replace concerns about an economic slowdown, depressed energy and China.  In fact energy stocks surged as the PHLX Oil Exploration and Production Index jumped a staggering 35.3% and the economy was blessed with a robust employment report (242,000 non-farm jobs added versus 200,000 forecasted). After major indices dropped approximately -10% to start 2016, they have since risen to recoup most of their year-to-date losses. The S&P 500® Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gained 9.3% and 8.6%, respectively, since hitting their lows on February 11th. What is confounding to most investors trying to time markets is they believe an obvious catalyst will emerge to signal the onset of a market rebound but market rallies are typically triggered by an incrementally few minor events that collectively elevate investor sentiment and these are often identified only after the fact. 

-Fortunately, the margin spread between government bond yields (treasuries) and corporates has been narrowing over the last couple of weeks, which has driven a rise in corporate bond prices. For instance, the BAML High Yield Index saw spreads drop hugely from a peak of 887 basis points (8.87%) on February 11th, to 768 basis points by the end of February. Another thing to consider is that the bull market was fuelled in part by big corporate stock buybacks, which have been funded by debt. That means that in order to continue, the debt markets must be cooperative for companies to issue debt for stock buybacks. Institutional investor leadership in the equity marked are aware of this mechanism with their allocation decisions toward stocks, which to no surprise, have also been recovering as well.

-For the month of February, the Dow rose +0.3%, the S&P 500 lost -0.4% and the Nasdaq lost -1.2%. The financial sector continued to struggle, ending the month down -12% year to date. For once, the catalyst for the decline was not oil, as a barrel of crude rose +3% for the session.  However, concerns over the slowing economy in China contributed to a late selloff. Gold closed February with a gain of more than +10%, the most for any month in four years. U.S. Treasuries prices also showed a second month of gains. The euro hit $1.086, its lowest against the dollar since the start of the month, after consumer prices in Europe fell again.

-Feb 26th market weekly roundup update:  On the heels of U.S. crude oil prices gaining over 3.5% and with second estimate for fourth quarter GDP increasing to 1%, US equity markets gained for the second straight week as concerns of a potential recession eased.  Most major indices are on track to post gains for the month with markedly reduced volatility; the results are a stark contrast to the turbulent 5+% decline in January. Another economic data set was also positive with new and existing home sales activity, while volatile, continued its trend upward. 

-Feb 19th market weekly roundup update:  The markets had the best weekly gains since November with the S&P 500 rallying more than 6% from its low last week to its recent high this week. Although the S&P 500 is still down -5.85% for the year, it is encouraging that oil's lower and stocks aren't cratering.  That relationship has to be broken down for this to be a sustainable rally. A rebound in the year’s most beaten-down areas, including technology, industrials, and consumer-oriented sectors, suggests that investors are beginning to look for bargains in deeply oversold stocks. Meanwhile, stock and index short covering activity likely contributed to the weeks biggest gains, namely Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s market strength; reports indicated these were the largest short covering days since October 2014.

-According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the past 50 years, every recession has seen the number of jobs in the economy decline by at least 1%, and have never declined by that much outside of a recession. Today, the number of jobs in the U.S. has been growing briskly—up 2.7 million in 2015.

-According to FactSet, despite average intra-year drops of 14.2%, annual returns have been positive in 27 out of 36 years for the S&P 500 since 1980.

-According to an Allianz study, 92% of Americans working with a financial advisor say that person is helping them reach their financial goals and 86% say their advisor relieves the pressure of trying to plan their family’s financial future by themselves.

-Large institutions and sovereign wealth funds, who borrowed in euro and yen, have been selling riskier assets, and are now buying back those currencies, undermining central bank efforts.

-Feb 12th market weekly roundup update:  Equity Markets closed lower for the second consecutive week despite Friday’s rally amidst continued investor anxieties about the fallout concerns over the health of financial companies, the effectiveness of central bank policies, lingering low oil prices and a slowdown in China. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries rallied in the week’s predominantly risk-off environment, benefiting from strong demand for safe-haven assets. The yield on the bellwether 10-year note, which began the week at 1.86%, fell to 1.63% on February 11th.

-The US Equity Market Correction started with China, pushed further by commodity related declines and has now taken down much of the financial sector with concerns of loan exposure to energy and other commodity weakened industries. More recently, the weakness was centered on large cap technology stocks, the clearest sign that investors have started to shift to “risk-off” on more aggressive portfolio holdings. Nothing we have witnessed in recent days leads us to conclude that the current correction has run its course.

-The potential impact of the downside is a critical consideration. Investment strategies that seek to generate more consistent returns and less severe drawdowns may offer investors a higher likelihood of maintaining their investment plan. Asset allocation is vitally important. The benefits of diversification can be powerful and robust, not just in terms of volatility reduction, but also for return enhancement. We recommend multi-asset diverse portfolios: when we construct an investment portfolio using multiple asset classes, one finds that portfolio volatility is less than the weighted average of the volatility levels of its components. This occurs as a result of the dissimilarity in patterns of returns among the components of the portfolio. We will call this advantageous reduction in portfolio volatility the multi-asset diversity effect.

-Feb 5th market weekly roundup update: Markets sharply dropped to snap two consecutive weeks of gains as soft economic data weighed on investor sentiment. Volatility continued due to persistent concerns about tepid global economic growth, some earnings disappointments and growing fears of a potential recession. All major indices fell for the week, with the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite losing over -5%. Our portfolios largely remain defensive,with healthy balance sheet stocks in defensive sectors (consumer staples, health care, utilities, etc.) that clip large growing dividends, stable company bonds with investment grade ratings, investment grade municipals, alternative managers that benefit or can withstand volatility, etc.

-Active fund managers welcome return of volatility. Active funds have outperformed passive funds in Europe and US in 2007, 2009 and 2010 when volatility spiked. Active management often enables flexibility for managers to harbor assets in safer asset classes and provide opportunities for investing in areas where fear has been overplayed.

-Weakness in financial equities continued to build with 55 stocks above a $5 billion market cap recording new 52 week lows on Wednesday, Feb 3rd.  Much of the sell-off concern has been driven by large bank exposure to energy loans, higher credit losses related to China’s impact on global economy and overall lower capital market activity for investment banking.

-Starting to see a pattern of capital migration back towards the US treasury market which has pulled long term US treasury yields back below multi-month support levels. With capital moving toward a "flight to safety," the US 10 year yield currently trades at a yield of 1.89%, the lowest seen since last April. The flattening of yield curve case would be symptomatic of weakness in credit markets that has already been revealed by widening spreads

-Monetary policies currently are asymmetric. If the Fed tried to do another round of QE and/or negative interest rates, the evidence is overwhelming that such actions will not make things better. However if the Fed wishes to constrain economic activity, to tighten monetary conditions as they did in December - then those mechanisms are still in place.

-U.S. equity markets stumbled out of the gate in 2016. With the exception of Utilities, sector performance was negative across the board. In particular, materials and energy struggled.

-Stocks ended the week sharply higher with a Friday surge, capping two consecutive weekly gains for the month.  Markets were boosted by Japan’s surprise interest rate cut, pockets of encouraging earnings reports, a better-than-expected Chicago PMI report and some stabilization in oil prices also helped push equities higher.  Nonetheless, even after this week’s rally, the equity markets posted worst January since 2009 with S&P 500, falling -5.07% for the month.  Much of the prolonged market’s negative sentiment has been directed at China.

-History shows it doesn’t take very long for market corrections (declines of greater than 10% but less than 20%) to reverse and return to prior peaks. The mean time to market recovery has only been 107 days. According to investment firm Deutsche Bank, on average, the stock market has a correction, defined as a drop of at least 10% or more from its recent high, every 357 days—or about once a year.

-It makes more sense to stay committed to an investment plan of diverse assets rather than try to guess the best time to be in the market. Over the past  66 years, there have been 13 bear markets, lasting an average of 14 months and declining a total of 24.6% before recovering. By contrast, the 14 bull markets since 1949 have lasted roughly a multiple of over 3x longer, or 44 months on balance, each growing an average of +117.3%.

-The equity markets ended up with sharp 2%+ increases on Friday with positive developments, including
early corporate earnings results, economic data, and supportive central banks comments, all which helped turn the receding tide. The strong Friday finish for the equity markets during the holiday-shortened week helped offset the sting of two turbulent weeks of decline; however, S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all remain down -6.6%, -7.5% and -8.3% year-to-date, respectively.

-Equity markets tumbled on Friday Jan 15th to end a second straight week of sharp declines. The S&P 500 Index joined other major indices in starting the tumultuous year with downward moves toward 
correction territory. Investors knee-jerk reaction of “sell-first, ask-questions-later” is a sentiment that has turned excessively negative, with the S&P down -7.83% YTD and the NASDAQ down -10.36 for the year.

-Oil prices have dropped about another -20% this year and this has impacted the S&P 500 and bonds given their high exposure to energy corporates. However, higher dividend yield stock sectors that we currently overweight for equity allocation, such as utilities, are only down -0.21% for the year. Continued worries about falling crude oil prices and weakness in both China’s currency and its stock market contributed to the malaise, being down over -20% from its late December high - entering bear market territory. Nonetheless, China’s manufactory-driven economy has yet to show evidence of a “hard-landing” given the overcapacity, real estate bubble, excesses of investment and exchange rate pitfalls.

 -As the year unfolds, we look beyond macroeconomic headlines and seek out bright spots across the investment landscape stand to benefit. We continue to increase allocations to strategies that benefit from negative market forces of prolonged market volatility as downward market trends persist; marked by signals of investor capitulation related to China-Oil-ISIS-Fed worries. For example, one of our liquid tradable manager strategies benefits from market weakness and volatility and returned +50% in 2008; this fund had a +16.o% annual inception return since 2006 and returned +7.74% in 2015; the liquid tradable holding is also up YTD 2016 (as of Jan 15). This asset class category of funds all have daily liquidity and are tradable within our Charles Schwab Institutional platform.

-Art Cashin recently shared a powerful data point “Jason Goepfert, the outstanding pilot of SentimenTrader dug into his incredibly extensive files to uncover a rather rare condition. He noted that the indices have had two 10% corrections in a rather short span. That has only happened three times in the last 100 years. Unfortunately, those occurrences were in 1929, 2000 and 2008. As you may recall, those were not particularly good years for the bulls.”

-Inasmuch as we have forecasted the current volatility in 2016 with higher frequency and greater magnitude, and also positioned our client portfolios for this current environment, it is important for investors to remember that there has been a lot of volatility and plenty of sharp corrections, even bear markets, over the course of the past two decades. From the peak in 2000 to its trough in 2002 the equity markets tanked by almost -50%. On October 19, 1987 (a.k.a. Black Monday), the market plummeted by more than -20%. Due to the financial crisis starting in 2008, by March 2009 the S&P was down almost -60% from its 2007 apex.  And during the past 25 years the S&P 500 has fallen by more than -8% at least once over a three-week period in the large majority of calendar years. It happened even four months ago as recently as August 2015. It has happened in 2011, 2010, and several times during the most recent financial crisis about eight years ago. It has happened in 2003, multiple times in 2002, and frequently in 2001.
 
-Fed Rate Rise Calls Evaporate as Markets Plunge. The Fed made clear their rate guidance with "liftoff" with an anticipated four more 25 basis point increases this year.  But U.S. interest rate futures markets show barely two rate hikes priced in for this year. According to former Bank of England policy maker and Economics Professor at Dartmouth (Blanchflower), “The markets don't believe the Fed. I said at the time of the December raise it was a mistake and gave a 50/50 chance that the next move would be a cut."

-The -4.93% YTD decline already for the S&P 500 is actually the worst 4-day start to a year in the index's history since 1928. The week's market upheaval is more about emerging markets than developed markets and more about global currency mechanisms than credit/debt issues.  However, investors should have safeguards in place for portfolios and have adaptive investment strategies in place given the whipsaw of market sentiment. One of the reasons so many investors fail is because they make poor decisions when markets fall.

-We forecast a modest positive environment for 2016 with tepid U.S. economic growth in light of the strong U.S. dollar headwinds on exports and U.S. corporate global exposure, also weighed down by the energy industry’s dismal outlook and China’s troubles reverberating into core goods and services. More specifically, we look for the S&P 500 to return low single digits with elevated market volatility in 2016. Our investment strategies for 2016 will include more allocation exposure to benefit from both volatility and the prospects for only marginal potential equity market returns.  We also foresee market corrections, periods where the equity markets recede -10%. This type of pullback has occurred as recent as the month of August 2015 and with a typical frequency of about every 18 months or so.

-Asset allocation is vitally important. The benefits of diversification can be powerful and robust, not just in terms of volatility reduction, but also for return enhancement. We recommend multi-asset diverse portfolios: when we construct an investment portfolio using multiple asset classes, one finds that portfolio volatility is less than the weighted average of the volatility levels of its components. This occurs as a result of the dissimilarity in patterns of returns among the components of the portfolio. We will call this advantageous reduction in portfolio volatility the multi-asset diversity effect.

-As one investment leader puts it (Gibson), ‘the multiple-asset class strategy is a tortoise-and-hare story. Over any one-year, three-year or (intermediate-term) period, the race will probably be led by one of the component single-asset classes. The leader will, of course, attract the attention. The tortoise never runs as fast as many of the hares around it. But it does run faster on average than the majority of its components, a fact that becomes lost due to the attention-getting pace of different lead rabbits during various legs of the race...  Yet the tortoise, in the long run, leaves the pack behind.  And in case the analogy was lost on anyone, the hare is the single-asset class (such as just pure) domestic stocks, for instance - whereas the multiple-asset class is the tortoise.’ 

-The auto investment services called Robo-Advisors like Betterment and Wealthfront apparently did not serve their investors well in 2015.  Research analyst Meb Faber said all four of the Robo-Advisors "likely lost money in 2015, with Betterment losing between 0.28 percent and 3.16 percent, depending on the allocation model, and Wealthfront losing between 1.08 percent and 4.59 percent. This isn’t surprising considering most assets performed poorly in 2015, yet inexperienced investors complained on social media. “People [who] flip out about being down 5 or 10% don’t understand these portfolios have lost 30 to 50% historically!” Faber said

-S&P 500 finished the 2015 year with its first loss of -0.7% since 2008, yet still eked out a +1.38% positive overall total return with dividends. The S&P was weighed down by significant falls in the oil and materials. The Dow Jones returned +0.21% and US Corporate Bond Index finished down -0.46%. US Corporate High-Yield bonds lost -4.5%, according to the Barclays index, while Brent crude tumbled -35% over the year from $57.33 to below $37.28 a barrel; high yield bond exposure to energy was a determent. Spot gold dropped -10% with copper falling by -25%. In a year of US dollar strength the dollar index rose +9% while the euro gave way to a -10% decline, falling from $1.21 to about $1.09. The Brazilian currency (the real) stood out as the biggest decliner, down -33% against the dollar, hurt by a weakening of its commodity driven economy and political risk. 

-While unemployment itself has looked good enough and there has been some wage growth, the labor force participation is at 62.5%, which is essentially its lowest mark since 1977.