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Montecito Capital Management, Investment Advisors


Weekly Stock Market Summary & S&P 500 Update November 2019

11/2/2019

 
November 29, 2019 Weekly Capital Market Update. The stock market not only rose for the third straight month, but the S&P 500 hit another all-time high for the week on positive economic news and stability of U.S.-China trade talks (which was recovered from jitters related signs two bills backing Hong Kong protesters.. Bravo!).  On the week, the S&P 500 returned +1.49%, the Dow Jones gained +1.31% and the Nasdaq rallied +2.09%. Shoppers spent $4.2 billion online on Thanksgiving, a 14.5% increase from last year and a record high, according to data released by Adobe - overall sales are expected to exceed $9 billion. According to Factset, 113 of the S&P 500 companies have cited the term "tariff" during earnings calls for Q3, which is 13% below the number for Q2 (130) over the same time frame.  Also, 60% of S&P 500 companies have beaten revenue estimates for Q3 to date, above the 5-year average of 59%. Third quarter (Q3) GDP growth was raised up to 2.1% in the second reading, better than expected, versus the 1.9% clip in the earlier reports.


November 22, 2019 Weekly Capital Market Update. The U.S. equity market declined for the first time in seven weeks on uncertainty regarding the signing of U.S-China trade agreements. Also, President Trump is expected to sign a bill that supports Hong Kong protesters, which could further damage prior progress made in China trade negotiations. The Nasdaq fell -0.25% followed by the S&P 500 Index -0.33% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.46%. The best performing sectors for the week were health care and utilities, while the worst performing sectors were industrials and materials. On the economic front, however, there were positive trends with the preliminary November purchasing managers indices (PMI) for both manufacturing and services rising to a seven-month and four-month high, respectively. Additionally, strong corporate earnings reports from Target, Nordstrom and Hibbett showed uplifting trends that consumers continue to support economic growth.        


November 16, 2019 Weekly Capital Market Update. The major U.S. stock market indices finished positive for the week buoyed by Chairman Powell’s statements that he didn’t foresee “day of reckoning” coming for the US anytime soon and does not see signs of bubbles brewing in what he called “sustainable” markets. Consequently, the markets demonstrated resilience against news that U.S-China trade negotiations stalled due to China wanting tariffs to be removed once the first stage agreement is signed.  In turn, the U.S. wanted further commitments from China on long-term purchases for U.S. goods.  The S&P 500 Index finished up +0.88%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose +1.17%, while the Nasdaq +0.77%.


November 8, 2019 Weekly Capital Market Update. Spurred by positive corporate earnings and ongoing U.S.-China trade deal progress, U.S. stocks continued the upward climb for the week. The S&P 500 Index rose +0.85%, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained +1.22% and the Nasdaq finished up +1.06% for the week. S&P 500 corporate earnings have been on the upside with 60% of companies beating revenue estimates for the third quarter (Q3) to date (above the 5-year average) of 59% while 75% of S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3 (above the 5-year average of 72).



November 1, 2019 Weekly Capital Market Update. The U.S. equity markets were supported as corporate earnings continued to outperform expectations while the strong job report in October was further boosted by upward revisions adding 95,000 jobs to August and September reports.  According, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq reached new highs as investors moved from safe harbor U.S. Treasuries into the equity markets. For the week, the Nasdaq led the gains with +1.74%, followed by the S&P 500 +1.47% and Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.44%.  As anticipated, the Federal lowered interest rates by -0.25% on Wednesday and Chairman Powell stated that “The current stance of [interest-rate] policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as the economy expands moderately and the labor market stays strong...”  On Friday, China indicated that “it reached consensus in principle” with the U.S.  in this week’s trade talks for the Phase One. More specifically, China said the two sides conducted “serious and constructive” discussions on “core” trade points and talked about arrangements for the next round of talks.

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