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Montecito Capital Management I Investment Advisors


Investment Insights & Financial Facts for the Month of December

12/2/2015

 
-True Cost of Financial Advice: Merrill Lynch Most Expensive.  Investors are often unaware how much they pay for financial advice, but the difference over 30 years of investing among different brokerages can amount to close to half a million dollars, according to a survey cited by WealthManagement.com. The most expensive advice comes from Merrill Lynch, which charges an average combined total of 1.98%.  TD Ameritrade is also amongst the most expensive as far as just advisor fees, with 1.53%.

-For the week ending Dec 18th, the anticipation surrounding the Fed’s decision boosted stocks early in the week, but the equity markets ultimately turned lower on continued worries over crude oil prices and a strengthening dollar's impact on US trade.  In addition, Friday’s expiration of various options and futures, commonly known as “quadruple witching,” created additional market volatility. 

-The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual” and in line with previous projections.  This was a positive signal of confidence by the Fed in the economy, which resulted in a global rally. The Federal Open Market Committee also unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016.

-For the close of the 2nd week of December, markets declined sharply in reaction to tumbling commodity prices in the run-up to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.  All major indices and sectors fell; not surprisingly, Energy was the worst performing sector. High yield (or, “junk”) bonds have come under increased pressure as the effect of rising rates adds to the price declines caused by investments in commodities and emerging markets.  This past week two high yield bond funds were forced to close as they were unable to meet redemption requests.  Notably, fixed income investments, in general, are far less liquid than stocks.


-Growth remains at a moderate positive pace of +2%-2.5% for the first three quarters of 2015. And real final domestic purchases were over 3% in the 3Q. This suggests that consumers continue to spend and businesses are investing.


-World equity markets proved resilient in November with global equity markets gaining 0.7%.  A key date in many investors’ diaries is the Fed meeting on 16 December. After a decent string of US economic data—including a robust jobs market report for October— the conditions would finally appear to be in place for the Fed to feel confident lifting rates from the zero-lower bound. Globally, the Christmas period is usually a good time for equity market performance. Looking back over the last two decades the MSCI AC World Index has risen by 1.8% on average in December.

-Going back as far back as 1928, December is the only month that has never resulted in the worst performance of any given year, according to data from Oppenheimer Asset Management and Bloomberg.


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