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Montecito Capital Management I Investment Advisors

Investment Insights I Market Outlook & Investment News

Investment Insights & Financial Facts for the Month of May

5/1/2016

 
-May 27th Weekly Roundup Update: US equities finished higher for the week with all major indices generating positive returns above 2% across the board. Firmer oil prices helped, with West Texas Intermediate touching $50 this week. The resilience of the underlying economy to falling energy prices can be seen in the Unemployment Rate, which declined to 3.93% in April, the lowest since September 2008.  US economic output advanced at a still-sluggish 0.8% annual rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Growth in the second quarter looks to be a bit more robust, with growth estimates running around 2.5%.

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May 20th Weekly Roundup Update: Despite disappointing corporate earnings results from retailers, broad equities managed to end the week higher as trading activity was robust on back of increased intra-day volatility. The S&P 500 closed the week up approximately +0.6%, while the tech-focused NASDAQ Composite climbed +1.4%. The path to these gains, however, was bumpy, as the S&P 500 recorded average intraday swings of 1.1%. Driving this volatility was the Federal Reserve's minutes from its meeting in April. The minutes revealed that the committee thinks it may be appropriate to raise short-term interest rates in June if the labor market continues to strengthen, inflation continues to rise at an annual rate of 2%, and economic growth accelerates in the second quarter. Treasury rates rose as a result; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note increased to 1.85% from 1.71% last week.  In addition, stock Utilities, which typically attracts investors seeking high dividends in a low interest rate environment, was the worst performing sector; stock Financials, which typically benefits from higher interest rates, outperformed. 


-May 13th Weekly Roundup Update: Markets fell for the third straight week on uneven trading activity.  All major indices fell with the S&P 500® Index returning to breakeven for the year. Driving stocks lower on Wednesday was a batch of poor earnings reports by stocks in the consumer sector, particularly from brick-and-mortar retailers. At the end of the week, nearly 92.0% of S&P 500 components had reported their results. Blended earnings were down 7.0% year-over-year while earnings on a reported basis were down 7.6%. Investors heard from a handful of Fed officials throughout the week with some cautioning that the possibility of a rate hike in June should not be dismissed entirely. The fed funds futures market, however, remains convinced that the next rate hike will not come before December. 

-May 6th Weekly Roundup Update: Markets pulled back for the second straight week on lackluster economic data and mixed earnings results. Since reaching year-to-date highs in late April, major indices have stalled as investors weigh soft economic indicators and four consecutive declines in quarterly earnings for the S&P 500® Index. Indeed, the equity markets sold off this first week of May, fulfilling the “sell in May and go away” trading adage. For the week, the Dow ended down 0.2 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq declined 0.8 percent. The S&P 500 is up 0.6 percent for the year so far. The BofA Merrill Lynch BB/B cash pay constrained index was down -0.63% this week as spreads widened by 26 basis points to an option-adjusted-spread of +497 basis points. The tone of the past week in municipals was that of stability, despite some high profile events (i.e. first general obligation default in Puerto Rico), and further political discord in the cities of Chicago and Detroit.

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