• Monday – Friday 6:30 AM – 6:00 PM
Portfolio Intelligence · RegimeSignal™ Advantage

We see the turn
before Wall Street does.

Most advisors react to bear markets after the damage is done. Montecito Capital Management uses a proprietary, AI-augmented market regime intelligence framework to help evaluate when portfolio risk is rising, when conditions are weakening, and when recovery signals become more durable.

This intelligence layer supports our portfolio management process, helping us protect client capital, avoid emotional decisions, and make disciplined allocation adjustments across full market cycles.

~84% Average validated precision
8 / 8 Bear regimes identified
~4 mo Forward warning window
montecito.internal / regime-monitor Signal Active
S1 Trend Integrity
Constructive
S2 Breadth & Participation
Weakening
S3 Volatility Regime
Constructive
S4 Macro & Liquidity
Caution
S&P 500 · Active Regime
Bull Market · Weakening
Bull velocity: decelerating · Bear velocity: subdued
Walk-forward refit · monthly Example view · not live data
Proprietary · Internal Research Layer An institutional-grade intelligence layer used inside Montecito’s portfolio management process.
Why It Matters

Most portfolios are positioned for the last bear market. Ours are built to prepare for the next one.

The investment industry often treats market risk as something clients must simply endure. We believe risk should be studied, measured, and actively managed within a disciplined fiduciary process.

RegimeSignal™ is designed to help identify forming bear regimes, hidden corrections, panic conditions, and stronger recovery windows. It does not replace judgment. It improves the quality of the information behind judgment.

The most important risk in a retirement portfolio is time. Detection matters when recovery time is limited.
Kip Lytel, CFA · Founder

This is not emotional market timing. It is market regime intelligence: a structured way to distinguish routine volatility from deeper, portfolio-relevant change.

The Difference
Traditional Advice
“You cannot time the market”
Montecito
We evaluate regime, not noise
Traditional Advice
React after the drawdown
Montecito
Assess risk before consensus
Traditional Advice
Depend on lagging narratives
Montecito
Use forward-looking classifiers
Traditional Advice
Hold static allocations
Montecito
Apply adaptive allocation review
Traditional Advice
Opinion-led risk calls
Montecito
Evidence-led, reviewable framework
Validated Track Record

Eight for eight. Every financially driven S&P 500 bear regime, flagged in advance.

Each signal is constructed and tested under walk-forward protocols designed to mirror real-time decision-making, not curve-fit hindsight.
8 for 8 Every financially driven bear market since 1990. Flagged in advance.
1990 Gulf War ✓
2000 Dot-Com ✓
2007 GFC ✓
2011 EU Debt ✓
2015 China Slowdown ✓
2018 Q4 Drawdown ✓
2022 Rate Shock ✓
2025 Regime Shift ✓
Precision refers to the share of signal fires followed by the predicted event within the model’s forward window. COVID-19 is excluded as an exogenous shock and handled separately by the HybridBrain™ ERI overlay.
Inside The Engine

Four validated signals. One full-cycle intelligence framework.

Each signal has a defined purpose inside the broader portfolio review process, from early risk detection to recovery confirmation.
BRS
86% Precision

Bear Regime Signal™

Helps identify when bear-market risk is forming, giving the portfolio process a structured early-warning layer before damage becomes obvious.

Bear Alert · Regime Classifier
MBS T1
83% Precision

Market Break Signal · Tier 1

Supports tactical awareness around potential pullbacks and helps prevent portfolio decisions from being made at the wrong moment.

Pullback · Neutral Trigger
MBS T2
84% Precision

Market Break Signal · Tier 2

Helps identify deeper correction risk and supports escalation into a more defensive review process when conditions deteriorate.

Correction · Underperform Trigger
RRS
82% Precision

Regime Recovery Signal™

Helps distinguish temporary rallies from more durable recovery conditions, supporting disciplined re-engagement when the evidence improves.

Recovery · Confirmation
Methodology

Disciplined. Validated. Continuously adapted.

RegimeSignal™ is designed to support the advisory process with evidence, not replace professional judgment.
01

Walk-Forward Validation

Signals are tested under walk-forward protocols intended to resemble real-time decision-making rather than hindsight optimization.
02

Expanding-Window Refits

Classifier models are refit on a regular cadence so the framework can adapt as market structure changes while retaining cycle history.
03

AI-Augmented, Not AI-Driven

Machine learning supports signal construction and calibration, while methodology, definitions, and decision logic remain reviewable.
How It Serves Clients

A market intelligence layer inside the portfolio decision process.

Regime intelligence is not a product sold separately. It is part of the discipline Montecito applies when reviewing portfolios and managing risk.
01

Anticipate

Identify forming bear regimes before they become obvious in consensus headlines.
02

Position

Frame pullbacks, drawdowns, and weakening internals while they are still actionable.
03

Re-engage

Review recovery evidence before moving back toward more constructive portfolio positioning.
03

Filter

Separate routine volatility from regime-level structural change that may matter to portfolios.

CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst leadership
MBA
Graduate-level business and finance training
BA
Economics degree foundation
20+
Years of investment industry experience
RIA
Independent fiduciary advisory model
The Montecito Difference

Do not just hold a portfolio. Have it actively reviewed and defended.

Schedule a complimentary portfolio review and see how Montecito’s portfolio process uses risk management, market intelligence, and fiduciary guidance to support long-term decisions.
Schedule Portfolio Review
Investment Approach
The RegimeSignal™ framework is a proprietary market intelligence tool used internally by Montecito Capital Management to inform portfolio decisions. All precision figures reflect historical walk-forward out-of-sample testing on the S&P 500. Past market signal record does not guarantee future results. RegimeSignal™ and HybridBrain™ are referenced as proprietary research methodology used in our advisory process. Montecito Capital Management is a fiduciary, fee-only Registered Investment Advisory firm. This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Please consult our ADV filing at adviserinfo.sec.gov for full disclosures.
Scroll to Top