April 25, 2025, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA, Montecito Capital Management. The three major stock market indices experienced an increase over the week, marking their second week of gains out of the last three. The S&P 500 rose by 4.6%, while the Nasdaq saw a rise of 6.7%. Although the Dow lagged behind, it still achieved a weekly gain of 2.5%. Throughout the week, market fluctuations were influenced by news regarding tariff regulations, the autonomy of the Federal Reserve, and trade discussions between the U.S. and China. The inconsistent communication surrounding trade issues has contributed to market volatility. Earnings for the S&P 500 are projected to have increased by 9.7% in the first quarter compared to the previous year, with 64% of S&P companies surpassing revenue forecasts for Q1, aligning with the 10-year average of 64%. Investors will be closely monitoring several key economic indicators set to be released next week, including quarterly GDP figures, a significant inflation report, and the employment statistics for April.
April 17, 2025, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA, Montecito Capital Management. This week, market fluctuations persisted as investors grappled with the potential effects of tariffs. The S&P 500 experienced a decline of 1.5%, while the Dow and Nasdaq fell by 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively. In 2025, the Dow and S&P 500 have decreased by 8% and 10%, respectively, with the Nasdaq suffering a nearly 16% loss. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration would likely increase inflation and hinder economic growth, presenting a challenge for the central bank in determining interest rate policy. Analysts at Wedbush informed clients in a note on Thursday that they anticipate minimal guidance from technology companies over the next month due to the current uncertain environment. Additionally, tariffs have adversely affected U.S. consumer sentiment, which has fallen to its second-lowest level since records began in 1952. According to the latest survey from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment dropped 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, marking the second-lowest figure recorded since 1952 and lower than any reading during the Great Recession.
April 11, 2025, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA, Montecito Capital Management. It was a wild ride, but all three major U.S. indexes ended the week higher after Trump paused some Tariff actions and the Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins made assurances that the Fed is prepared to keep financial markets functioning should the need arise: S&P 500 +1.81%, Nasdaq +1.63% & Dow +1.56%. However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still down -8.8% and -13.4% for the year, respectfully. Morgan Stanley’s base case is a soft landing characterized as “slower but steady growth and inflation” that stays relatively subdued, while Goldman Sachs lowered their odds for a recession in the year ahead to 45%, unwinding an increase to 65% earlier in the day prior.
