-September 30th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The S&P 500 gained 0.2% for the week, but shed 0.1% for the month. The benchmark index advanced 3.3% during the third quarter, underperforming the Nasdaq (+0.8%), which climbed 9.7% in Q3 and gained 1.9% in September. Technology sector stocks had a particularly good quarter. Economic growth in the second quarter was revised slightly higher by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
-September 23rd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets rallied this week, with most of gains delivered after the Federal Reserve decided to delay its next rate hike until at least December – even though there was no rate change expected - as well as expectations for a slower pace of future rate increases. All the major stock indices gained, with small and mid-cap indices outpacing large caps as investors favored more aggressive investments. One thing to keep in mind is the stock market doesn't like election uncertainty, which is one reason why stocks have increased an average of 2.8% in the two months following past presidential elections. Next week, OPEC and non-OPEC members meet in Algiers to discuss oil market conditions and the possibility of a production freeze agreement.
-The Federal Reserve’s Federal (FOMC) changed no policy rates and it kept its policy concerning its balance sheet unchanged this week. But they sent clear signals that a rate increase in December is a strong possibility. Three FOMC members (Fed presidents Esther George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren) would have preferred to raise the federal funds rate at this meeting. Janet Yellen indicated Fed member consensus is becoming stretched as the group “struggled mightily to understand each other’s point of view.” It is our view that any rate increase would be a nominal change (+0.25) and that there would be no long term negative impact on the capital markets. Further, lending is largely based on the 10-year treasury yield, which is more impacted by supply-demand metrics of the global markets.
-September 16th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Following a modest pullback at the start of the month, stocks have been treading water as investors await next week’s commentaries on monetary policy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the Bank of Japan. Equity markets recovered some of the losses seen the prior week despite the rise in market volatility. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained +0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up +0.2%. Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 index only up +0.3%. In terms of style, large-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks. US yields were mixed as high yield credit declined and the yield curve steepened, with yields on longer maturities rising while shorter dated yields posted narrow declines. Meanwhile, European shares ended at six-week lows as Deutsche Bank slumped.
-Since the current bull market started, there have been 67 instances in which the S&P 500 dropped at least 2% in a given day, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 has then averaged a 1.3% gain in the week following these steep downdrafts.
-September 9th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market fell for the third time in four weeks as fears of rising interest rates globally drove a risk-off tone across capital markets, coupled with European Central Bank's decision to defend its current monetary policy instead of increasing its stimulus plans as the market expected. The S&P 500 ended the week down approximately -1.7%, also the worst week since late June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.6% for the week, while the tech-focus NASDAQ Composite fell -1.8%. Market volatility picked up as the week wore on as broad equities (S&P 500) slid lower by more than -1.6% on Friday, which was the biggest one-day loss since Brexit. Large-cap stocks performed in with small-cap stocks.
-September 2nd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Generally speaking, the market was very quiet. In fact this year, August was an especially quiet month for stocks; trading volumes were among the lowest in decades. The U.S. Equity Market rallied for the week as Friday’s disappointing jobs report dampened expectations of the Fed hiking rates later this month. The S&P 500 added 0.5% thanks to a Friday rally, which took root after the release of a disappointing Employment Situation report for August. The best performing sectors were financials and consumer staples, while the worst performing sectors were health care and energy. Fed Chair Yellen remarked, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months." The case must be stronger now. December implied probability of fed hike improved to 54.2% from 53.6% on Thursday.
-September 23rd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Markets rallied this week, with most of gains delivered after the Federal Reserve decided to delay its next rate hike until at least December – even though there was no rate change expected - as well as expectations for a slower pace of future rate increases. All the major stock indices gained, with small and mid-cap indices outpacing large caps as investors favored more aggressive investments. One thing to keep in mind is the stock market doesn't like election uncertainty, which is one reason why stocks have increased an average of 2.8% in the two months following past presidential elections. Next week, OPEC and non-OPEC members meet in Algiers to discuss oil market conditions and the possibility of a production freeze agreement.
-The Federal Reserve’s Federal (FOMC) changed no policy rates and it kept its policy concerning its balance sheet unchanged this week. But they sent clear signals that a rate increase in December is a strong possibility. Three FOMC members (Fed presidents Esther George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren) would have preferred to raise the federal funds rate at this meeting. Janet Yellen indicated Fed member consensus is becoming stretched as the group “struggled mightily to understand each other’s point of view.” It is our view that any rate increase would be a nominal change (+0.25) and that there would be no long term negative impact on the capital markets. Further, lending is largely based on the 10-year treasury yield, which is more impacted by supply-demand metrics of the global markets.
-September 16th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Following a modest pullback at the start of the month, stocks have been treading water as investors await next week’s commentaries on monetary policy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the Bank of Japan. Equity markets recovered some of the losses seen the prior week despite the rise in market volatility. For the week, the S&P 500 index gained +0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up +0.2%. Small-cap stocks underperformed large-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 index only up +0.3%. In terms of style, large-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks. US yields were mixed as high yield credit declined and the yield curve steepened, with yields on longer maturities rising while shorter dated yields posted narrow declines. Meanwhile, European shares ended at six-week lows as Deutsche Bank slumped.
-Since the current bull market started, there have been 67 instances in which the S&P 500 dropped at least 2% in a given day, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The S&P 500 has then averaged a 1.3% gain in the week following these steep downdrafts.
-September 9th, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. The U.S. Equity Market fell for the third time in four weeks as fears of rising interest rates globally drove a risk-off tone across capital markets, coupled with European Central Bank's decision to defend its current monetary policy instead of increasing its stimulus plans as the market expected. The S&P 500 ended the week down approximately -1.7%, also the worst week since late June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined -1.6% for the week, while the tech-focus NASDAQ Composite fell -1.8%. Market volatility picked up as the week wore on as broad equities (S&P 500) slid lower by more than -1.6% on Friday, which was the biggest one-day loss since Brexit. Large-cap stocks performed in with small-cap stocks.
-September 2nd, 2016 Weekly Market Roundup. Generally speaking, the market was very quiet. In fact this year, August was an especially quiet month for stocks; trading volumes were among the lowest in decades. The U.S. Equity Market rallied for the week as Friday’s disappointing jobs report dampened expectations of the Fed hiking rates later this month. The S&P 500 added 0.5% thanks to a Friday rally, which took root after the release of a disappointing Employment Situation report for August. The best performing sectors were financials and consumer staples, while the worst performing sectors were health care and energy. Fed Chair Yellen remarked, “I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months." The case must be stronger now. December implied probability of fed hike improved to 54.2% from 53.6% on Thursday.