June 28, 2024, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA. Stocks closed the week with mixed results, but an overall strong showing for the month of June 2024.  For the week, the Nasdaq led with +0.8% followed by the S&P 500 adding 0.2%, while the Dow declined 0.5%. Last month’s inflation figure came in sluggish, slowing to its lowest annual rate in more than three years while CPI was essentially flat last month, or just 2.6% from the prior year. As depicted in the below chart, for the month of June, all equity indices finished resoundingly in the green, while the very impressive year-to-date returns were led with greater sector breadth of Information Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Health Care.

June 21, 2024, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA. Stocks finished up for the third week, led by the Dow Jones +1.5%, followed by the S&P 500 +0.6% and the Nasdaq 0.01%. While the tech-infused Nasdaq has been on a tear these past months, the chip-stock rally lost wind as Nvidia (NVDA) pulled back on the week.  Before Friday’s Nvidia drop, its market cap stood at $3.1 trillion and was up 170% for the year and was more valuable than the many large European markets like Britain and France. As the upcoming Presidential election starts to make more headlines, a relevant historical benchmark for stocks is the S&P 500 average 6-month return leading up to a Presidential election in early November is 4.67%, which compares to 2.14% in non-election years. [according to Schaeffer’s research]

June 14, 2024, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA. For the week, US stock market indices finished mixed with the Dow down 0.5%, the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq sharply up 3.2%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in flat over the previous month, and below consensus economic targets. CPI rose 3.3% over the prior year in May, marking a deceleration from April’s 0.3% month-over-month increase. However, Fed Chair Powell highlighted upside risks to inflation remain. In particular, he mentioned shelter prices, which showed no indications of slowing for the past 11 months.  Stocks overall, however, remain on a positive return trend for both the month of June and year-to-date 2024.

June 6, 2024, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA. US market equities posted another winning week led by the Nasdaq +2,4%, followed by the S&P 500 +1.3% and the Dow Jones 0.3%. The European Central Bank cut rates for the first time since 2019, adding pressure to the Fed to potentially lighten its stance on the rate policy. Recent data from the U.S. Labor Department has also raised concerns about a potential cooling in the labor market.

​June 1, 2024, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA. Stocks rallied for the month of May with the S&P 500 closing with the best performance month since February, up +4.8%. The Nasdaq and Dow also posted gains, up 6.9% and 2.3%, respectively. However, US equities posted losses on the for the last week of May: The S&P 500 finished down 0.5%, Dow was off 1% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.1%. Futures tied to the Fed policy rate increased bets of roughly even odds that the central bank will start to cut rates in September and upped the chances of a second rate cut in December to about the same probability.