December 22, 2023, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap.  For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.75% and the Nasdaq gained 1.2%, while the Dow Jones mildly inched up 0.2%. The US equity market continues to be supported by cooling inflation data, including the most recent Personal Consumption Expenditure Index which came in at only +0.2% in October, sharply down from 0.7% reported in the previous month. Investor sentiment is encouraged by ongoing indicators suggesting the Fed can prospectively initiate an easing of Fed rates in 2024 given inflationary pressures continue to show signs of weakening.

December 15, 2023, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap. The Dow Jones led the US equity indices with a +2.9% gain on the week, followed by the Nasdaq up +2.8% and the S&P 500 higher by +2.5%. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at a meeting of its policy-setting committee, keeping the target range for the federal-funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. Fed Chair Powell commented, “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease.” The median forecast in Federal Open Market Committee members’ latest Summary of Economic Projections places the rate ending 2024 at 4.6%. However, investors expect significantly more cuts in 2024, while the financial markets are pricing in around 1.25 percentage points of rate cuts next year, starting in March.

December 7, 2023, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.4% on the week, followed by the S&P 500 +0.8% and Nasdaq +0.4%. US consumer sentiment rebounded sharply in early December, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index surging to 69.4 in December from 61.3 in November, topping all forecasts. Further, the data also showed a shift in consumer households’ year-ahead inflation expectations, dropping by the most in 22 years.

December 2, 2023, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap.  Goldilocks economic data, stable earnings, oil price weakness, and cash flowing back into stocks has resurged the US equity rally to where year-to-date gains are nearly their highest levels for the year. On a total return basis, the month of November was a blockbuster month with the Nasdaq finishing up 10.8%, the Dow Jones +9.2% and the S&P 500 ended the month +9.1%. After the tepid inflation (CPI/PPI) reports, and Q3 US GDP was revised to 5.2% from 4.9% (5.0% expected), the market momentum changed, and now investor sentiment is towards Fed being done raising rates.