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Author: Montecito Capital Management

Last week, U.S. equities posted modest gains amid a mix of economic signals and mounting anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision. From Friday, November 28, through Friday, December 5, the major indexes delivered the following returns:

  • S&P 500: +0.31%

  • Nasdaq Composite: +0.91%

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.50%

While the overall moves were modest, they reflected a market navigating both optimism around a potential Fed rate cut and caution stemming from broader economic uncertainties.

Key Drivers of Market Action

  1. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Investor sentiment was lifted by expectations for a 25-basis-point reduction at the December FOMC meeting. This helped support the S&P 500 near record highs. At the same time, rising long-term Treasury yields tempered some of the enthusiasm, keeping gains in check.

  2. Labor Market Signals: Thursday’s jobless claims report came in better than expected, pointing to ongoing labor market strength. This reinforced the possibility of a “soft landing” for the economy but also moderated overly aggressive rate-cut expectations.

  3. Corporate Earnings and Sector Trends: Overall, third-quarter 2025 earnings were solid and provided a positive tailwind. However, technology stocks faced pressure, with the sector down about 4.4% for the month, slightly dampening the Nasdaq’s performance. In other areas, companies like Southwest Airlines revised down forecasts due to weaker demand tied to the ongoing federal government shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—which weighed on travel and consumer-oriented sectors.

  4. Broader Market Pressures: Earlier in the month, the S&P experienced a roughly 5% pullback as rate-cut optimism waned. Meanwhile, renewed funding market stress prompted cautious commentary from central bank officials regarding balance sheet plans.

Overall, last week reflected a market walking a fine line: balancing hopes for Fed support against lingering fiscal uncertainties from the shutdown and signs of uneven sector performance.

Looking Ahead: Key Economic Data (Week of December 8-12, 2025)

Investors will face a packed economic calendar, including delayed releases due to the government shutdown. Highlights include:

  • Monday, December 8: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (December); Consumer Credit (October, delayed)

  • Tuesday, December 9: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, October, delayed); monthly GDP estimates

  • Wednesday, December 10: Consumer Price Index (CPI, November); Federal Budget Balance (November)

  • Thursday, December 11: Producer Price Index (PPI, November); Initial Jobless Claims (week ending December 6); Employment Cost Index (Q4, delayed)

  • Friday, December 12: Retail Sales (September, delayed); University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary December); Import/Export Prices (November)

CPI, JOLTS, and retail sales are expected to be particularly influential, providing insight into inflation trends, labor market dynamics, and consumer behavior—all key factors for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision.

Fed Rate Cut Prospects

Markets are heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, with Fed funds futures implying an 85-93% probability. A decision to hold rates steady is seen as unlikely (7-15%), while hikes or larger cuts remain extremely low probability (<1%). Beyond the headline rate, investors will closely watch Chair Powell’s press conference for guidance on 2026 policy, which could drive significant market reaction.