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Two Markets in One Week: Inflation Blinks, Tech Rebounds, and Risk Returns

Author: Montecito Capital Management

Market Performance: A Tepid Week That Ended with a Rally

After a volatile, stop-and-start week, U.S. equities finished on a more constructive note. The S&P 500 ended the week roughly flat, posting a modest gain of about 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a rise of approximately 0.5%, supported by a late-week recovery in technology shares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, finishing down roughly 0.7%, despite participating in Friday’s rebound.

Across the tape, the week unfolded in two distinct phases summed up on the economic front as inflation cooled, and unemployment rose. Early weakness reflected lingering concerns over stubborn inflation, unemployment concerns, elevated yields, and the risk that the Federal Reserve would remain restrictive longer than markets had hoped. As the week progressed, cooler inflation data helped stabilize bond markets and ease rate expectations, improving the valuation backdrop for equities. That shift, combined with oversold conditions and year-end positioning, led to renewed risk appetite and a stronger finish by week’s end.

Tech Sector: From Retreat to Rebound

The technology sector mirrored the broader market’s split personality. Mid-week selling pressure hit major growth names as investors took profits following strong year-to-date gains. Skepticism around AI valuations resurfaced, and concerns that aggressive capital spending could pressure near-term margins weighed on sentiment, particularly with rates still elevated earlier in the week.

Oracle became a focal point of those concerns. Shares came under pressure as investors questioned the scale and timing of the company’s AI-related infrastructure spending, including the near-term impact on free cash flow and margins. Uncertainty around return on invested capital, combined with broader worries that enterprise AI monetization may take longer to materialize, temporarily weighed on both Oracle and the broader software complex.

By Friday, the tone changed decisively. Cooling inflation reduced pressure on yields and improved the outlook for long-duration growth assets, prompting investors to step back into beaten-down tech leaders. AI-linked names led the rebound as confidence returned.

Oracle reversed sharply higher late in the week following news of a U.S.-based joint venture tied to TikTok alongside Silver Lake and other partners. The announcement helped reframe the narrative around Oracle’s AI investments, easing concerns about demand visibility and reinforcing confidence that enterprise spending on cloud and AI infrastructure remains durable.

This two-step pattern — short-term weakness followed by a sharp rebound — became a defining feature of the week, highlighting how quickly sentiment can swing even within powerful secular themes like artificial intelligence.

SP 500 Weekly Stock Market Return Chart December 19 2025