June 13, 2025, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA, Montecito Capital Management. The S&P 500 declined by 0.4%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.6%. The Dow fell by 1.3% during the week. This downturn was primarily attributed to a significant drop on Friday, June 13, when the index fell by 1.1%. The week commenced with slight gains; however, rising tensions in the Middle East, especially following Israel's strikes on Iranian targets, triggered a market sell-off. Inflation remained subdued in May, countering concerns that the effects of President Trump’s tariffs would lead to an increase in prices. Consumer prices saw a modest rise of 0.1% in May compared to the previous month, which was below economists' expectations. Year-over-year inflation stood at 2.4%, aligning with forecasts and close to a four-year low recorded in April. This report is likely to prompt inquiries regarding the timing of a widely anticipated increase in prices this summer, which is expected by both the Federal Reserve and private-sector economists. The May Producer Price Index (PPI) also increased less than anticipated, reinforcing the argument for caution from the Federal Reserve. Producer prices rose by 0.1% in May, which was below the predicted 0.3% increase and marked a recovery from April’s revised decline of 0.2% (initially reported as -0.5%), as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer sentiment saw an uptick in June for the first time in six months, indicating that Americans' perceptions of the economy have improved as inflation has remained low and the Trump administration has achieved a truce in its trade conflict with China.
June 5, 2025, Weekly Stock Market Return Recap, by Kip Lytel CFA, Montecito Capital Management. The S&P 500 has surpassed the 6000 mark for the first time since mid-February. The index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, closing up 1.5% from the previous Friday, and is now 2.34% below its all-time high from February 19th, 2025. Investors welcomed the news that President Donald Trump stated three cabinet officials will engage with representatives of China in London on June 9 to discuss a trade agreement. The Dow increased by 1.2%, while the Nasdaq gained 2.2%. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for May indicated that the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 130,000 jobs. This job number, though higher than anticipated, reflects a slight decrease from the previous month’s addition of 147,000 jobs. The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced interest rates by an additional 25 basis points during its June policy meeting, lowering its deposit facility rate to 2.00%. In the subsequent press conference, ECB President Lagarde referenced moderating inflation and downside growth risks as reasons for the rate cut decision.
