From: Subject: New Document Date: Wed, 5 Sep 2007 19:41:54 +0530 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0134_01C7EFF4.D01479D0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1506 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0134_01C7EFF4.D01479D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.mcapitalmgt.com/mcapital/the_wall_streetjournal.html New Document
=20
The 2007 Bunker = Portfolio
Four safe and smart = strategies=97and one=20 riskier play for the truly bearish=97for investors who expect the=20 worst
by Ben=20 Steverman, Aug 2, 2007
No one really knows where the stock market is going. = Is the=20 late-July plunge in stock indexes a momentary blip, or a sign of = worse=20 things to come? Will credit troubles and the ever-lower housing = market do=20 in the rest of the economy?
One thing is clear: Markets have entered a period of = wild=20 volatility. Indexes hit record highs and a week later fell almost = 4% in=20 two days.
"That is a sign the market is changing," says = Hossein=20 Kazemi, finance professor at the University of Massachusetts at = Amherst.=20 "There is a divergence of opinion" among investors, he = says.
For this Five for the Money, we look at what = investors can=20 do to prepare for the worst. We call it our Bunker Portfolio. Feel = free to=20 compare this with last summer's edition, when the big worry was = tension in=20 the Middle East (see BusinessWeek.com, 7/17/06, "The=20 Bunker Portfolio").
Before we lay out a few strategies, though, some = warnings=20 courtesy of the financial advisors we consulted for this = story:
Risk is part of investing. If you're investing for = the long=20 term, don't get spooked just because of a little bad news. You can = miss=20 out on a lot of upside if, as often happens, the worst fears = aren't=20 realized. Also, don't make any sudden moves you will regret. If = you switch=20 strategies too often, trading costs may eat up your = returns
If, however, you're going to need to cash in your=20 investments soon=97for retirement, tuitions, or a home = purchase=97it makes=20 sense to keep your money in a safe place. As Austin (Tex.) planner = Morgan=20 Stone points out, a market crash just before you need the money = would be=20 disastrous.
Also, if you really believe stock prices have peaked = and the=20 economy is facing a world of hurt, a safer investment strategy = just might=20 help you sleep better at night.
Whatever happens, here are five ways to help your=20 hard-earned cash survive downturns and disruptions. We start with = the most=20 conservative=97some might say boring=97 strategies and move on to = riskier ways=20 to prosper if things get dire.
1. = Cash
If you're really worried, "there is no shame in = being in=20 cash," Kazemi says. With cash you'll lose out on big returns, but = you=20 won't lose any of your principal.
If you do cash out of other investments, there are = better=20 places to put the money than burying it in the backyard. = Money-market=20 funds provide an entirely safe spot to park cash while still = getting a=20 decent return. Marshall Groom, a financial advisor based in = Richmond, Va.,=20 recommends the Vanguard Prime Money Market (VMMXX)=20 fund. Another risk-free option is bank certificates of deposit, = which are=20 insured (up to $100,000 at any one bank) by the federal = government. CDs,=20 however, lock up your money for a period of time, often at least = six=20 months.
Advisors recommend that you have at least some of = your=20 portfolio in cash at all times. Cash worth at least three or four = months=20 of expenses can help out mightily in an emergency.
Kazemi suggests the extremely cautious investor = might wait=20 on the sidelines in cash until October, when the ride might be a = little=20 less wild.
2. = Bonds
The safest investment out there may be government = bonds.=20 Yes, prices can fall, but you're guaranteed a certain return if = you hold=20 the bonds until maturity. TIPS bonds are guaranteed to beat = inflation,=20 which can sap your portfolio's buying power. If things get bad, an = interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve might boost bond prices. =
Until recently, markets gave investors little = incentive to=20 invest in somewhat-riskier corporate bonds. Yields were barely = higher than=20 those on government debt. "The market basically ignored risk," = says Micah=20 Porter, president of the Minerva Planning Group in Atlanta. With = the=20 recent credit crunch, that's starting to change. Porter says it = may make=20 sense to buy corporate bonds, but he recommends only those with = very high=20 grades that will hold up if the economy worsens, defaults rise, or = the=20 credit crisis deepens.
3. International = funds=20
Most advisors say international investments are part = of any=20 diversified portfolio. Much of the world's economic growth is = expected to=20 come from outside the U.S. For risk-averse investors, = international=20 exposure lets you avoid the impact of disruptions in the U.S. =
Emerging markets such as India and China are = booming, but=20 they may be less stable than the U.S. There is less market = research=20 abroad, and regulations that protect investors aren't as strict, = says=20 Avani Ramnani of Athena Wealth Advisors in Jersey City, N.J. =
Barbara Camaglia, of Ohio-based Legacy Financial = Advisors,=20 says it's important to distinguish between emerging markets and = developed=20 markets. Stocks in Europe are no more risky than U.S. stocks, she = says.=20
One of the best ways to avoid risk is to diversify = your=20 portfolio to include assets that won't rise or fall in value = together.=20 Foreign investments used to move independently of those in the = U.S.,=20 providing a good counterweight.
However, the extent to which investments correlate = can=20 change over time. Signs are increasing that world economies and = stocks are=20 becoming more and more connected as it gets easier to invest = across=20 borders. In late July, credit worries in the U.S. caused markets = all=20 around the world to fall at once. "Over time, they're going to run = in=20 tandem," says Brent Little, managing partner of Texas-based = Odyssey Wealth=20 Management.
4. Commodities=20
The booming global economy can't seem to get enough = oil,=20 metal, and other commodities. That could keep commodity prices = high even=20 if markets fall. Commodities also should hold value even if the = dollar=20 continues to fall or inflation heats up, Kazemi says
Until recently, commodity investing for the small = investor=20 wasn't easy. But a variety of new ETFs offer investors inexpensive = ways to=20 get commodity exposure. Advisors recommend spreading your money = across=20 various commodities.
Commodities can be very volatile and "a little goes = a long=20 way," Minerva's Porter says. He recommends PIMCO's Commodity Real = Return=20 Strategy fund (PCRAX).=20
5. Alternative=20 investments
Here's where things get riskier. If you have some = money to=20 play with and don't mind paying some hefty fees, you can find a = fund=20 manager with strategies for growing your money through even the = worst=20 economic turmoil.
Hedge funds were originally created just for this = purpose:=20 to be hedges against declines in other assets, like stocks. Thus, = many=20 private equity and hedge funds consciously try to move = independently of=20 equity markets, and often they succeed.
Investors, however, will need a high net worth to = invest in=20 hedge funds. It's risky, so you don't want to put all your eggs in = one=20 basket. "Diversification in the case of hedge funds is especially=20 important," says Kazemi, who is a consultant to the not-for-profit = Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Assn. "You don't want to = invest=20 in a single manager."
Funds of funds give well-off investors a place to = invest in=20 a broad spectrum of hedge funds. However, they often add their own = fees,=20 on top of those of the hedge funds. "You are getting a second = layer of=20 fees, but you're also getting diversification that a small = investor=20 ordinarily couldn't get," Little says.
Some mutual funds specialize in providing returns in = down=20 markets. Kipley Lytel, managing partner of Montecito Capital = Management,=20 recommends the Hussman Strategic Growth fund (HSGFX). =
Again, caution is needed here. This sort of = investing=20 requires a lot of skill and research. Many hedge fund strategies = exist,=20 some much more risky than others. And bearish mutual funds will = provide=20 mediocre results in a rising market.
The bottom line? Most financial advisors recommend = against=20 market timing, i.e., trying to bet exactly when the market has hit = its=20 peak. You'll probably be wrong.
A better strategy, they say, is to keep your = portfolio=20 diversified, spread among several asset classes from the safe to = the=20 risky. Then you'll be ready for almost anything.
"If you have a properly designed portfolio," = according to=20 Cathy Pareto of Florida-based Investor Solutions, "market = corrections and=20 economic disruptions become irrelevant."
Steverman is a = reporter=20 for BusinessWeek's Investing = channel.
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